https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1315148796758761472
The fate of the American Republic -- and, perhaps democracy in the West, as well as our survival against climate catastrophe -- may now hinge on how the media behaves on election eve.
Mail-in voting is a two-edged sword. It allowed many whose votes would have been actively suppressed by the GOP to cast a ballot and it allowed many to vote with reduced exposure to covid-19. BUT it handed the Fascist Kleptocrats a weapon. See the polls. Trump is leading day of election voters by a wide margin while Biden wins mail-in voters by a far greater margin.
The media is a business whose incentives promote the lack of discipline. Election night is a dramatic performance. If they give in the impulse to try to call the election on election night without the majority of votes tallied -- and they presumably lack the statistical prowess to interpret the two very different samples correctly -- they will give the blood mob and its inciters precisely the excuse they need to challenge the integrity of the election.
An irresponsible media that calls the election based on day-of voting ballots will give Trump reason to declare victory long before the votes are counted. As mail-in votes are counted, the election will swing state-by-state to Biden, until the final results move approximately 100 electoral votes from red to blue. By then, millions of uneducated, armed, angry white domestic terrorists will be fired up by the Fascists to burn those swing state Capitols to the ground. Trump will be tweeting that Hilary and Obama and Blue Swing State Governors must be arrested. Barr & Company will use this excuse to challenge results in places like PA with GOP legislatures. By then, the Handmaid may be on the SCOTUS ready to affirm. The actual vote and the Constitution will be rendered meaningless. The loss to the nation, democracy in the West, and the biosphere may be incalculable.
THE MEDIA MUST BE THE ADULT IN THE ROOM AND REPEAT CONSTANTLY THAT NO RESULTS CAN BE DETERMINED ON ELECTION EVE. If they yield to the highly irresponsible but powerful impulse to behave as if this isn't a two-stage election with a totalitarian ready to seize power by whatever means possible, it's all over.
