In my view, moral Republicans and far-sighted, strategic Democrats should both think this government shutdown likely to fail their interests.
Moral Republicans -- let's define a moral Republican as one who supports Trump in the belief that he cares about US security, believes he is not a sociopath, and believes further that he is not arrested in his development and having a temper tantrum. As well, but not essential to my argument, you are moral because you believe Trump is doing more good than harm. Finally, also not essential to my argument, this is not really a tenable position if you are fully informed -- so I am willing to consider people moral who have allowed themselves to be incompletely informed.
If you are a moral Republican, then, you believe that Trump DOES care about the one million furloughed workers, does care about the devastation of parks, waterways, and other vulnerable environmental hot spots, does care about all the critical work that is not being done by the government, some of which may cause us grave harm, does find himself sleepless, worrying that even his secret service agents are unpaid throughout this shutdown, does care about the eroding of the credit of the US and the US dollar, does worry that that credit is diminished so badly that we lose the reserve currency status and hundreds of billions of dollars on his watch, and worries about his legacy as the president who destroyed the very enterprise he was elected to protect. (Again, if you are a moral Republican you do not believe he is an agent of Putin.)
Hence, if you are a moral Republican, you think Trump may cave in on this border wall -- after doing so much harm with the shutdown -- because he is too moral himself to allow so much devastation on his watch. That is negative political fallout with the vast majority, who care more for winning and losing political points than in doing good for the nation. And a braggart who says he can negotiate cannot afford to lose this battle.
How about strategic Democrats? Those who can play chess a few moves in advance? Virtually all Democrats think Trump is a sociopath who doesn't gave a damn about national security or the people, infrastructure, or institutions that will be harmed by a shutdown. Virtually all Democrats believe his psychological development was arrested very young, and that this is all a temper tantrum. And most Democrats agree that he is a braggart who bet it all on his ability to win a negotiation. So what about the strategic Democrats who are counting this out? Why would they think that a sociopath who doesn't give a damn about anything but his thin-skinned pride is going to be the first to swerve in this game of Chicken? He is driving the car remotely -- the occupants at risk are millions of Americans. Why would the people who think he's an uncaring SOB who cares nothing for American well-being and cares nothing for its people think he is the one who will blink?
Moral Republicans -- again, those who think he is a good man -- and strategic Democrats -- again, those who think he is a childish, sociopath -- should have balked at this foolish game of Chicken. Moral Republicans should believe a moral president would never do his country so much harm and strategic Democrats should believe that a infantile sociopath would never care enough to swerve first.
That each side should have thought this A FOOLISH GAME TO PLAY suggests it should not have happened.
But it did.
The only conclusion, then, is that moral Republicans have far too little influence on Trump and on the GOP leadership, and strategic Democrats have far too little influence on Democratic leadership.
So who *is* in charge?
On the GOP side, immoral, punitive, hate-mongerers who care little for the monumental human and other damage this will do. Unlike the moral Republicans, they know that Trump is a bastard -- and that suits them. They know he won't swerve first and the US will be damaged horribly -- and that suits them, too. He's a racist -- the more the better. Traitors and haters of all sorts --- some of the Bannon ilk who want everything destroyed; some of the Miller ilk who are homicidal maniacs who would sooner see a hungry child tossed into a camp than fed a warm meal; some of the Trump-Kushner ilk who think taxes are for suckers and smart people laugh at those who serve their country. These people see that Trump doesn't give a damn, will never lose face to do the right thing, and want just that.
The bottom line here is that in order to support Trump's position on the shutdown, you have to actually believe and support all the evil the Democrats are saying about him. Plenty do, apparently.
On the Democratic side, people who suffered so badly under total kleptocratic control that re-taking the House was very emotional. They know the wall is a stupid, hateful, racist piece of symbolic crap, and they thought it should be stopped. They imagined that standing up to Trump here and now was a first step in winning the war. So they jumped the gun and said -- yes, here and now, take a stand on the wall. $5.7B isn't big in the scheme of things, and one more massive corrupt and foolish construction project would not be our end, but giving this liar what he wants is revolting. Yes, closing the camps and returning the children to their parents would have been a much better battle for the moral high ground, but the wall has Trump's ugly face written all over it, so this is how to strike him closest to home.
But the Democrats with influence forgot to ask: when do you play a game of Chicken? Is this the game at which you beat THIS MAN? If I have a chance to play chess, checkers, poker, or Chicken with an SOB known for his stubborn rage, where do I put down my chips? We picked a game where the winner is the one who is best at not giving a damn, and being stubborn past the point of all reason. This is the one game Trump can win. And even if he loses, the costs of taking this hill will be very high.
The bottom line here is that in order to support Pelosi's view that Trump can be defeated on this hill and that it will not be a Pyrrhic victory, one has to believe much of what the Republican's have said about Trump -- that he is sane, cares about the country and its people, and can be reached by the mounting suffering of a shutdown. While I know many Republicans know Trump is a sociopath and like him for it, I am surprised that so many Democrats believe him or the GOP leadership decent enough to lose a game of Chicken before the suffering becomes unbearable for all moral people.
Democratic leadership wanted to beat Trump on the Wall so badly that they failed to carefully assess if this was the right battle. Whoever wins this battle must prove to be the bigger bastard in the game. And if they win? That's like coming home from work to discover that your kid was picked on at school and took out half a dozen kids with a lead pipe. You never look at your little one quite the same way again. To win this battle, you need to prove yourself to be the more callous sociopath. A monkey could have beaten Trump at chess, but this played to his strength and it only happened because the men around Trump know and love that he is a crazy, heartless bastard and the people around Pelosi, and perhaps Pelosi herself, needed someone to take a swing at Trump sooner rather than later, and jumped into the first battle without analyzing the game.
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